Availability heuristics
What is the availability heuristic?
The availability heuristic, also called availability heuristic, means that people judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples of them surface in their minds. This can often lead to overestimation of recent or high-profile events.
How does this heuristic work?
When recent or notable events are easy to recall, people often overestimate the frequency or likelihood of these events. This is because these events surface more easily in the mind, making them seem more important than they really are.
A concrete example
After seeing news reports about plane crashes, people may overestimate the likelihood of a plane crash because these events are easy to remember. This is because the media pays attention to dramatic events, making them more prominent in our minds.
This principle can also be found in marketing. For example, consumers overestimate the quality of a product when they see many positive reviews and testimonials. Companies can exploit this by prominently displaying customer reviews and success stories on their Web sites.
